Jacksonville Jaguars vs. St. Louis Rams Week 5 NFL Pick
If the Jacksonville Jaguars want to avoid a winless season, they might want to win this Sunday in St. Louis. Blaine Gabbert made his return to the lineup this past Sunday after sitting out with a lacerated hand. Unfortunately for Gabbert and the rest of the Jags, he threw for just 179 yards and 0 touchdowns. Not helping the matter was Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 13 carries for just 24 yards as well as 0 touchdowns. Zero touchdowns is the story of the season so far for Jacksonville, as they didn't score a touchdown in their week 1 home opener, as well as last week's blowout loss at the hands of the Colts (also at home).
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Now they take their anaemic offense on the road to face a Rams squad that simply hasn't been very great themselves this year. St. Louis got touched up at home by San Francisco last Thursday night, surrendering 35 points at home to a team that had previously scored 10 points in their last 2 games combined. Sam Bradford has yet to turn into an elite Quarterback in this league, and it can be argued he has so far turned into a below average Quarterback at this point in his career. The Rams' home passing ranks 20th in the league at 235 yards per game, while Jacksonville's road pass defence is actually fairly impressive as they rank 9th in the league, allowing just 219 pass yards against per game away from home.
Although they surrendered 35 points last week at home, the Rams home defence is ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL, a number that could easily improve with the worst offense in the NFL coming to town. Just look at the following ranks that I haven't mentioned yet through a quarter of this NFL season: Jacksonville overall scoring - 32nd, Jacksonville road passing - 24th, Jacksonville road rushing - 31st, St. Louis overall scoring - 25th, St. Louis home rushing - 31st. Both of these teams average well under 3 yards per rush attempt, while Jacksonville averages under 5 yards per pass completion.
My Pick - UNDER 41.5 (-110) 5 Dimes
If you take out the game in which Jacksonville scored 17 points against most of the Seahawk's 2nd string defence, the Jaguars have scored a grand total of 14 points in their other 3 games - 2 of which were at home. Needless to say, this is one of the poorest offenses in the NFL in years. The sincere lack of any run game what so ever (Jones-Drew has 138 yards TOTAL this year) and a very poor pass game on the Jacksonville offense makes this total seem very difficult to achieve even if the Rams offense shows up to play. Therefore, the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games. Take the under and expect the Jaguar's offense to continue to spiral this weekend in St. Louis.