Washington Redskins vs. Denver Broncos Week 8 NFL Pick
Peyton Manning's first trip back to where it all began last Sunday did not turn out the way most people thought it would. Peyton did not let the emotions of his first trip back to Indianapolis get to him as he threw for 386 yards and found the endzone on 3 occasions, however the high-powered Broncos were handed their first loss of the season in what was an impressive effort from the Colts.
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Clearly, it wasn't the Broncos offense that was the issue on Sunday night, the problem was in fact the same issue that could ultimately hold this team back from a championship: the defence. The Broncos' 27th ranked defence is in dire need of improvement and could end up wasting Peyton's top-ranked offense's incredible season. The reason I like the over for this game is simple; two very solid (and one exceptional) offenses against 2 very mediocre defences.
Denver's overall scoring ranks 1st in the NFL, averaging almost 43 points per game, and Peyton Manning averages 360 yards through the air at home this season, also ranked 1st in the league. On the other sideline, Washington's offense has gradually improved this season likely due to RG3's continued recovery from major offseason knee surgery. The Redskins offense ranks 10th in the league in overall scoring, clicking at a 25 points per game clip, while also running the ball for an average of 149 yards per game on the road, good for 4th in the NFL.
My Pick - OVER 58 (-110) 5 Dimes
Although the offense in this game is clearly top-tier, the total lack of defence these teams continue to display is mind-boggling. Denver gives up an average of 28 points per game, but lately they have been showing us they are capable of giving up much more than that. They give up 300 yards per game through the air at home (30th in the league), and even surrendered 19 points to Jacksonville at home, a team that hasn't come remotely close to winning a game all year.
Washington's defence started the season on a historically bad pace, and have only improved slightly since that time. They won a shootout last week against Chicago in which they gave up 41 points and still managed to win, and I don't expect their 30th ranked defence to improve much this week against the league's top offense. The OVER is 5-0 in Denver's last 5 games overall and their last 5 games at home. The OVER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games against Denver and in their last 5 games on the road against Denver. Continue to ride this Denver offense and look for another high scoring affair Sunday afternoon in Denver.